What Wins Premierships? A Statistical Analysis

Put simply, defence.

Certainly, the flashy halfback or the representative centre will assist any team on the path to premiership glory. A team that can blow the other one off the park on any given weekend will occupy the spotlight.

However, a team that isn't endowed with attacking gifts can overcome these with great defence. The Dragons proved this to great effect last year by conceding an average of just 12.46 points all season. That's barely more than two converted tries!

By contrast, the Dragons scored only 90 tries all season. That's 14 less than South Sydney, who won six less games than St George Illawarra and still missed the finals.

Let's see how the 2010 Dragons stack up against other defences in the NRL era:

11.45 - 2008 Storm*
11.54 - 2007 Storm**
12.25 - 1999 Eels
12.46 - 2010 Dragons**
12.92 - 1998 Broncos**
13.71 - 2009 Dragons
13.83 - 1999 Sharks
14.50 - 2009 Storm**
14.54 - 1998 Eels
14.79 - 2008 Sea Eagles**

** Denotes that team won the grand final in that season
* Denotes that team lost the grand final in that season

Looking at this table, one can deduce that the past four premiership-winning teams all had cracking good defence - ironically though, the best defensive unit since the NRL started lost the grand final 40-0 in that same season.

One also has to question how the 1999 Sharks and 1999 Eels both feature in this list yet neither played in the grand final of that year.

Let's now go back to 1982 (the start of the expansion era and Winfield Cup) to see which teams were the leading defensive units of that time, and how they subsequently performed.

1982 - Parramatta Eels - 10.92 - Premiers
1983 - Parramatta Eels - 11.27 - Premiers
1984 - Canterbury Bulldogs - 9.88 - Premiers
1985 - St George Dragons - 11.00 - Lost Grand Final
1986 - Canterbury Bulldogs - 11.00 - Lost Grand Final
1987 - Canterbury Bulldogs - 13.17 - Missed finals
1988 - Penrith Panthers - 11.73 - Lost Minor Semi Final against Balmain
1989 - South Sydney Rabbitohs - 9.41 - Lost Preliminary Final against Canberra
1990 - Canberra Raiders - 11.14 - Premiers
1991 - Penrith Panthers - 11.36 - Premiers
1992 - Illawarra Steelers - 11.77 - Lost Preliminary Final against St George
1993 - Manly Sea Eagles - 10.55 - Lost Minor Semi Final against Brisbane
1994 - North Sydney Bears - 13.23 - Lost Preliminary Final against Canberra
1995 - Manly Sea Eagles - 11.27 - Lost Grand Final against Canterbury
1996 - Manly Sea Eeagles - 8.68 - Premiers
1997 (ARL) - Newcastle Knights - 14.55 - Premiers
1997 (SL) - Cronulla Sharks - 12.78 - Lost Grand Final against Brisbane
1998 - Brisbane Broncos - 12.92 - Premiers
1999 - Parramatta Eels - 12.25 - Lost Preliminary Final against Melbourne
2000 - Brisbane Broncos - 14.92 - Premiers
2001 - Parramatta Eels - 15.62 - Lost Grand Final against Newcastle
2002 - Sydney Roosters - 16.88 - Premiers
2003 - Canterbury Bulldogs - 17.46 - Lost Preliminary Final against Roosters
2004 - Canterbury Bulldogs - 15.33 - Premiers
2005 - Parramatta Eels - 19.00 - Lost Preliminary Final against North Queensland
2006 - Brisbane Broncos - 16.33 - Premiers
2007 - Melbourne Storm - 11.54 - Premiers
2008 - Melbourne Storm - 11.45 - Lost Grand Final against Manly
2009 - St George Illawarra Dragons - 13.71 - Lost Semi Final against Brisbane
2010 - St George Illawarra Dragons - 12.46 - Premiers

Note that due to tries being worth three points in 1982, I adjusted Parramatta's actual average from that year (9.31) by adding one point for each of the 42 tries they conceded so that their tally would be consistent with the others in the list.

So of the 30 premierships decided in 29 seasons since 1982, 14 of them have been won by the team with the most outstanding defence at the conclusion of the regular season. A further six teams lost the grand final that year. 20 of the 30 grand finals featured the team with the best defence that season - that's rather good betting odds if you ask me.

Of the ten remaining teams that failed to make the grand final, many notable "chokes" are featured, such as the 2009 Dragons, 2005 Eels and 1999 Eels. Only the 1987 Bulldogs failed to make the finals at all, although their defensive tally that year stands up very well against those registered by teams from the past decade.

Of the three teams that conceded less than ten points per game, two went on to premiership glory - the 1984 Bulldogs and 1996 Sea Eagles - ironically, both clubs were celebrating their 50th anniversary in those seasons. Only the 1989 Rabbitohs failed to win a premiership and concede less than ten points a game - although I'm sure it has been done on numerous occasions before 1982, although that is the rugby league equivalent of ancient history).

Ashes Fifth Test - Final Day Thoughts

Thank goodness that's over.

Fifth Ashes Test - Day Four Thoughts

A late blog tonight, sorry readers. I am also writing slightly under the influence of some cracking Ginger liquer. So any spelling mistakes are to be edited later.

Whatever fantastical notion existed that Australia would save this test has been blasted out of the waters by today's pitiful capitulation at the SCG.

There is little point in recounting scores or statistics; I'm sure that better blogs out there can do all that with ease. You yourself probably have already gotten loaded overboard with numbers and figures. Therefore, tonight's rant is based on perception and emotion.

Never before in all my years of watching cricket (the first series I remember is 1990-91) can I recall such a shocking, disspirited and abject performance from the clowns proporting to represent Australia.

Only the most optimistic and unbalanced supporters expected to see Australia making England bat again in this match. Instead we saw a performance akin to a clown's sideshow car - one toot and the wheels fell off.

It began - as it did in Melbourne - with an abysmal runout between Hughes and Watson, both of whom should never open for Australia again.

Kwajaha and Clarke did what they could, while Hussey's form deserted him at the worst possible time, as did Brad Haddin's. The Gabba feels like so long ago now.

Johnson came and went in a matter of minutes, while Steve Smith and Peter Siddle are left holding the fort. With Hilfenhaus and Beer to come, the test should end before lunch tomorrow, maybe even within the first hour.

Needless to say, 2010/11 has been Australia's cricketing annus horribilus.

There will be many different reports and inquiries in the months to come. I expect that we may even get a few different angles in various books which may be published in the near future. Ponting's Captain Diary could be very interesting to read, if it is written in an honest manner.

None of this really matters though, because the door has well and truly been slammed on Australia's dominance at test level.

Until 2005, the team carried an aura of invincibility through the successive captaincies of Border, Taylor and Waugh. Since then, we have lost series to all of the countries which matter - England, India and South Africa - while one could objectively say that Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and even New Zealand, could be a challenge for our current test team.

Hey, why not throw Zimbabwe in there. Or Afghanistan?

Thank goodness that the NRL is starting up again soon. Although I cannot rule out wrapping myself
In the flag once the World Cup on the subcontinent starts in a month or two.

Ashes Fifth Test - Day Three Thoughts

Tomorrow will almost certainly be the final day of the 2010/11 Ashes Series, a most dismal one for Australia.

Just yesterday, a very wise and knowledgable blogger wrote these prophetic words:

"I don't expect Anderson to stick around for long tomorrow, although Cook, Bell, Collingwood and Prior are all capable of big scores. Despite our advantage on the scoreboard currently, I feel Australia really needs to lead on the first innings in order to have any chance of winning this test and saving face in the series." 

Lo and behold, Anderson was out quickly in the morning and then Cook, Bell and Prior racked up mammoth scores in a day of humilation for Australia. They do not lead on the first innings - in fact they trail dismally - they cannot win the test, and all face is lost.

Cook was eventually out for 189, and is surely in contention for player of the series. No player apart from Walter Hammond has made more runs in an Ashes series for England than he. Ian Bell - memorably termed the "Sherminator" by Shane Warne in a previous series - brought up his maiden Ashes century in defiance of an apparently controversial referral, which I haven't yet been able to see for myself. Judging by the usually impartial ABC, the decision to overturn the wicket was technically correct but, pardon the saying, was 'just not cricket'.

England produced over 300 runs for the day for the loss of only four wickets and now lead Australia by 208 runs with 3 wickets in hand. Suffice to say, the test is gone. Australia cannot win it, England certainly cannot lose it, and only the weather can prevent England going 3-1 up in the series.

And then we have to wait until June 2013 before we can try to take the Ashes back.

Fifth Ashes Test - Day Two Thoughts

Due to various extracurricular activities I was unable to take in much vision or audio of today's play, although I was able to witness what was - or what should have been - Michael Beer's maiden test wicket.

Instead of being caught in the deep, England's Nick Cook asked for a review and was duly found to be not out due to Beer overstepping the crease. The correct decision, although it must have stuck in Beer's throat.

Steve Smith continues to be perhaps the luckiest man in the team. He bats worse than Marcus North, he bowls worse than Marcus North (in the sense that North bowls, and Smith hasn't so far this match), and his fielding is certainly nothing unremarkable. So why did we get rid of Marcus North in the first place?

Hussey and Haddin could not go on with the job in the morning, although fortunately for Australia Mitchell Johnson (53) had a good day and was ably supported by Ben Hilfenhaus (34). The wagging of the tail resulted in Australia all out for 280.

England are 3/167 at stumps, with the nightwatchman Anderson protecting England's middle order in the shadows of Day Two. The third day is delicately set up with England poised to perhaps surpass Australia's total during the day and ask some questions of our bowling attack.

I don't expect Anderson to stick around for long tomorrow, although Cook, Bell, Collingwood and Prior are all capable of big scores. Despite our advantage on the scoreboard currently, I feel Australia really needs to lead on the first innings in order to have any chance of winning this test and saving face in the series. Therefore, our bowlers need to take seven wickets for around one hundred runs tomorrow morning. Needless to say, I am not supremely confident.

Unfortunately for me I doubt I will be able to see a ball tomorrow due to further activities which will take me off the couch, so tomorrow's commentary should be brief if not slightly uninformed.

Fifth Ashes Test - Day One Thoughts

To help celebrate my dad's birthday my brother, myself and other extended family took him on a charter fishing trip in Far North Queensland (or Central Capricornia, if you believe England's Daily Mail - google it if you have no idea what I am talking about). To my pleasant surprise, there was an airconditioned bar on board the vessel, which also featured a television with excellent reception. All of these factors meant I was able to enjoy watching today's cricket in a slightly inebriated and seasick state.

In this fifth test, Australia is purely playing for pride and to win back some of the respect squandered by the emphatic losses sustained in Adelaide and Melbourne. It was therefore vital that they 'win' the first day of play. Thanks to a combination of poor weather and solid batting, we can say they have not 'lost' the day. At stumps, we are 4 for approximately 110, which to be fair is an improvement on past efforts in Australian first innings.

The positive is Usman Khawaja, who made a good contribution in his maiden test innings, before getting out rather cheaply off the bowling of Swann. It is always good to see debutants playing well (and by contrast, awful to see them getting tonked - Bryce McGain, anybody?). If he survives the hype and manages it better than many of his teammates, then the "Koala" will have a long and productive career in the Baggy Green in front of him.

In contrast, Phillip Hughes and Michael Clarke both were disappointing to me. Hughes made another start but got out in the most dreadful manner; it was a shot that would be more befitting in a game of French cricket. His technique seems to be all over the shop and his confidence must be shot.

Clarke added just four more runs to his mediocre summer tally. I'm sure he would have wanted to score a significantly higher score, not least because he's captaining his country for the first time and playing on his home track. Despite his woes with the bat, Clarke's real test will arrive when the English take the field. We will discover then if the "captain-in-waiting" really has what it takes to follow in the footsteps of giants.

Tomorrow I think that Haddin and Hussey need to produce yet another big partnership to set Australia in a dominant position for the remainder of this match. Steve Smith and Mitch Johnson are capable of making extra contributions of their own, while Peter Siddle made a gutsy score of 40 in that futile second innings in Melbourne and is not beyond repeating that effort.

However, if the first wicket tomorrow goes without much added to the overnight tally, I could see Australia being bowled out for less than 200. If that happens, I may experience tomorrow a repeat of today's seasickness, except it will be the feeling of dread thinking of an English 3-1 series result.

For Australia to have a chance of winning this test, they must pass 300 by tea tomorrow. In our favour is that England will bat last on what could be an ideal spinners deck. Depending on your point of view, the (Michael) Beer could be flowing, chilled, flat or hot.

It certainly will not be dull.

Ashes to Ashes

"Ashes to ashes, funk to funky
We know Major Tom's a junky
Strung out in heaven's high
Hitting an all-time low..."

Just like David Bowie's Major Tom, Australian cricket appears to be heading towards an all-time low, at least measured against the success of the past twenty years.

To suggest that this summer of cricket has been disappointing for Australia is like suggesting that it's a little sandy in the Sahara Desert, or a little salty in the Dead Sea.

For a nation that is used to success and domination on a global scale, to be upended by the 'bloody Poms' in our own backyard is humbling indeed.

Much of the criticism and blame has been aimed towards Ricky Ponting and Michael Clarke, both for their personal form and for Ponting's perceived inability to get the most out of the squad he captains.

Looking at their individual scores this series, much of the criticism is deserved:

Ponting - 113 runs, average of 16.14
1st Test - 10 and 51*
2nd Test - 0 and 9
3rd Test - 12 and 1
4th Test - 10 and 20

Clarke - 148 runs, average of 21.14
1st Test - 9 and DNB
2nd Test - 2 and 80
3rd Test - 4 and 20
4th Test - 20 and 13

Perhaps most telling, these two batsman contributed just 37 combined runs in four innings in Australia's only win of the summer, the third test at Perth.

With the possible exceptions of Michael Hussey, Brad Haddin and maybe Peter Siddle, the entire Australian squad has been quite disappointing this summer.

Ponting has captained Australia now since 2003 (in tests; he got the ODI gig in 2002). While he cannot be held personally responsible for the relative decline of Australian cricketing talent, there is a worrying possibility he'll be remembered not for being the premier batsman of his generation, or for winning the World Cup three times as a player (and perhaps four times once February is over) but for being a three-time failure in the Ashes arena.

For a country that prides itself on being better than the 'whingeing Poms', that's all that matters. Granted, Ponting does have the 5-0 result in the 2006/07 Ashes to his name, although that was arguably more to do with the combined efforts of Hayden, Langer, McGrath and Warne, all of whom were lynch pins of the early years of Ponting's captaincy. None of whom grace the dressing room these days.

Australia has not held the ICC Test Championship since 2007. While it has its detractors who says it's nothing more than the brainchild of mathematicians (and don't forget, Duckworth and Lewis were mathematicians too!), the fact that India, South Africa and England are now ahead of Australia on this system reflects how far we have fallen since Steve Waugh's team were winning sixteen tests in a row - twice.

Let's not forget about Andrew Strauss and the rest of the English team though. They have been bloody-minded in their approach to winning the Ashes this summer and fully deserve their success. To beat Australia twice by an innings on their home soil is an achievement that should be recognised for what it is; an emphatic reminder of the relative rise of English cricket and the decline of the Australian team.

In a way, the history books would flatter Australia hugely should Michael Clarke inspire his team enough to get them over the line in the fifth and final test of the summer. For somebody who has the body language of a taxi driver with Alzheimer's on those occasions when he steps in Ponting's shoes on the field, I don't think I should hold my breath over an Australian victory in Sydney this week.

After the World Cup there should be a comprehensive and complete review of Australian cricket, beginning with the selectors and the processes at domestic cricket so that we can develop the next generation of Haydens, Langers, Pontings, Warnes and McGraths. Quite frankly, when our spin bowling stocks is placed into somebody who had not even seen the Sydney Cricket Ground until yesterday, it does not bode well for the future.

Story of a Flood

The current Queensland flooding crisis brings back memories of an earlier flood I experienced when trying to travel from Cairns to Longreach in 2008. What was normally a 12 hour drive turned into an ordeal nearly lasting a whole week.

It started with the remnants of ex-Cyclone Helen, which had affected Darwin in the previous week, doing an about-turn off the coast of Queensland and crossing to the south of Townsville as a depression.

I was in Townsville at the time during a stopover on my trip to Longreach and was checking the levels of the Burdekin River at Sellheim on my laptop. It was soon apparent that the river was crossing the level of the bridge and no travel west on the Flinders Highway would be possible.

I made the snap decision to forge a new route via Mackay and Emerald, hoping to miss the bulk of the flood waters. I had no sooner left Townsville the following morning before I found that the highway was backed up with cars for ten kilometres while water was gushing over the Haughton River at Giru. Consequently it was some hours later that I was able to get moving again.

I avoided Mackay altogether by taking a backroad through Mirani and was soon heading down the Peak Downs Highway, a vital transport link between Mackay and the various mines in the Central Highlands. This was new territory for me and I was feeling rather exhausted after a big day of drive. Believing that it was better to arrive late than dead on time, I checked into a motel at Moranbah, about two hours short of my goal of Emerald.

Unfortunately for me, I happened to check in on the night that Moranbah and indeed the entire Central Highlands received record rainfall. As I drove down the Gregory Highway it soon became apparent that this was a historical event. To my utter dismay, the road was closed at Capella, but I made the decision to dodge the unattended roadblock and continued towards Emerald.

Theresa Creek is the final creek crossing to the north of Emerald and I gave my car a real test by driving through 60cm of floodwaters, following a roadtrain who kindly parted the waters for me like Moses through the Red Sea. Feeling relieved that I didn't stall the car in the waters, I drove straight to the police station for advice about the condition of the Capricorn Highway.

If I was dismayed at Capella, the Emerald police did me no further favours as their flood bulletin on the door of their station blandly stated that no travel west (in the direction of Longreach) was possible.

I ended up spending three nights in Emerald, each of them in a different caravan park. As I left each morning, they warned me "You'll never make it through. You'll have to come back here tonight.". I assured them that I wouldn't be back at their caravan park that night. Therefore, checking into a different location each time was my way of saving what little face I had left.

The Capricorn Highway at Anakie, January 2008

The furthermost I made it from Emerald was around 80 kilometres, just past the town of Anakie, where around two metres of very angry floodwater was terrorising the surface of the Capricorn Highway. Given that I was the only person within ten kilometres, and remembering my experience from Theresea Creek, I didn't dare attempt to cross the five-kilometre wide flooded section. Thank goodness I listened to my conscience, otherwise I would have been the first (and only) fatality of that flood event.

With the Fairbairn Dam upstream of Emerald rising higher and higher, it soon became apparent that desperate times called for desperate measures. I checked into my fourth motel and four nights and plotted my escape from Emerald. If I didn't leave the following day, I could be left stranded with the highway expected to be cut in all directions for up to a week.

The new day dawned and I immediately left my motel and headed in the direction of the sun. I was apparently one of the last cars to cross the Comet River before it swamped the highway, and I barely stopped for toilet breaks or lunch as I drove nearly a thousand kilometres in an illogical route that saw me travel from Emerald to Charters Towers via Rockhampton, Mackay and Ayr. I arrived into Charters Towers late that night utterly exhausted and a little stressed about being expected back at work in just two days.

The rest of the trip passed uneventfully, although I later found out that I could have crossed the Burdekin River after my first night in Townsville, as the floodwaters fell in a matter of hours. If I were only a little more patient, I could have saved myself so much trouble.

The level of the current floods in Emerald peaked nearly a metre higher than those I experienced in 2008.